From meta- to megatrends.
Corentera Research is a subscription research service for investors who want to understand structural change in the global economy — and its implications for markets and portfolios. We follow structural change down to the level where it matters: from themes to industries, securities and their investment implications. Every view is published with its record; nothing is quietly forgotten.
Lasting change grows from five roots. The work is following it out.
These roots have reshaped economies for centuries, and they never stop. Each throws off a defining force in its own era. Identifying that force is where the work begins, not where it ends: the value lies two or three steps further on, where the consequences are no longer obvious and few investors are still looking.
The printing press · The steam engine · Electric power · The semiconductor
Artificial intelligence
Compute and data centres are built out at scale.
Energy requirements soar; grids come under strain.
Nuclear, renewables and gas — and the grid supply chains beneath them.
AI is embedded across firms’ processes and products.
Routine and increasingly complex work is automated; returns accrue to capital.
Wealth concentrates — and structural demand builds under luxury goods.
White-collar tasks become replicable by machine.
The traditional university path loses much of its value.
Demand shifts toward trades and skills insulated from AI.
One force, several consequences. The first column is where everyone looks; the third is where few arrive.
How change becomes price.
It begins as structural change.
Deep forces reshape the economy for decades at a time — and move in one direction only.
It becomes a theme.
The consequences cohere, often two or three steps removed from the obvious — where few are yet looking.
The market starts telling the story.
Investors adopt the narrative; a category forms; capital begins to follow.
The story moves prices.
As the narrative enters the mainstream, it reprices everything it touches.
The research follows a theme across all four stages; investment typically begins between the second and the third. And mainstream is not the end — with the signals, an established theme can be ridden for as long as the market keeps confirming it.
Fundamental research, systematic signals.
Identifying structural shifts in the global political economy is the starting point. Assessing their investment implications requires a separate discipline: a theme that develops over twenty years will pass through many market cycles, and valuation, momentum and market conditions can materially affect outcomes along the way.
This is where our systematic framework complements the fundamental research. Each theme is accompanied by quantitative indicators designed to show how market support for the thesis evolves through the cycle.
Published thesis
Each theme carries a documented fundamental case — what we believe and why. It is dated on publication and stays part of the record.
Live signals
Systematic indicators track how market support for each theme evolves through its cycle. They are published alongside the research they belong to.
Model portfolios
Reference portfolios translate each thesis into a transparent set of securities. Constituents, changes and performance join the record, tailored to no one.
Signals and model portfolios are published as part of the research record, and are not tailored to the circumstances of any individual investor.
The same discipline underpins the Corentera fund strategies — how it runs portfolios is a story of its own.
Every theme, tracked live.
Behind each thesis sits a maintained basket of the companies that carry the theme, indexed and measured daily. Systematic signals mark where to build exposure, and where to stand aside.
What you get.
Not high-level commentary with generic conclusions — research that follows structural change down to industries, securities and portfolio decisions.
And beneath it all, the portal — every published view tracked from the day it was made, down to the underlying equities. The whole record, not the parts that aged well.
Follow the themes, the signals and the published research record.
Corentera Research provides general, non-personalised investment and strategic research. Its publications are made available on a general basis and do not take account of any recipient’s individual investment objectives, financial situation, knowledge, experience or needs. They do not constitute personalised investment advice, discretionary portfolio management or an offer or solicitation to enter into any investment transaction. Model portfolios, research signals and other portfolio-related content are provided as part of the research service and are not tailored to individual recipients. Where a publication constitutes an investment recommendation or other information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy for purposes of the Market Abuse Regulation, the applicable disclosures will accompany that publication.